“They can perhaps weaken Hezbollah if they attack, but they cannot defeat it definitively.”
With anywhere between 20,000 and 100,000 fighters, the Hezbollah movement enjoys a “committed army of supporters” across Lebanon, making it particularly difficult for Israel to deter the group from an all-out war, according to an analysis by Foreign Policy, the news website.
“If Israel wants to create suitable conditions for the group to be demolished by fellow Lebanese, it first needs to figure out what to do with Hezbollah’s weapons and followers and how not to go overboard in a way that has the opposite effect on its campaign,” the report said. “That’s a tall order. In times of war, it is unlikely that all pieces fall in place perfectly for Israel to achieve its goals.”
The report stated that Hezbollah “isn’t just a group of a few thousand fighters. It is part of a community that sees the group as its defender and expresses faith in its chief, Hassan Nasrallah.”
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In addition, the movement “enjoys the support of most people in Lebanon’s Shia Islam community (although not all) and others may side with it if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Lebanon.”
Sami Nader, a Lebanese political analyst, is quoted as saying that “te Sunnis opposed Hezbollah when the group fought on the side of (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad who was killing Sunni rebels; but now they back Hezbollah, which is helping Hamas, which is Sunni, and Gaza, which is Sunni.”
‘Leading Normal Lives’
The Foreign Policy analysis also highlighted that most Hezbollah fighters “lead normal lives, have day jobs, are committed to offering their services when called upon, and are discreet enough to hide their identities.”
“Since it is hard to identify Hezbollah fighters, Israel wouldn’t know how to distinguish them from civilians even if it invaded,” the analysis said.
It further questioned whether Israel will “eliminate entire populations to defeat its adversary? And will that bring it safety or an extended conflict?”
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Elias Farhat, a former general of the Lebanese Army, said it was clear that Israel was military stronger. However, “Hezbollah resorts to asymmetric warfare,” by deploying “its units in hideouts, tunnels, and caves with no appearances.”
“A full-scale invasion allows Hezbollah to cause heavy damages in the heart of Israel between Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem. … We don’t rule out an advance of Hezbollah in Galilee,” Farhat said.
According to the Foreign Policy analysis, “Israelis are in a tight spot.”
“They can perhaps weaken Hezbollah if they attack, but they cannot defeat it definitively.”
Ongoing Fighting
Since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, on October 7, Hezbollah has engaged directly, but relatively in a limited way in the war against the Israeli occupation.
In recent weeks, however, the intensity of the fighting has increased, leading to concerns that an all-out war between Hezbollah and the Israeli army is imminent.
Israel has occupied parts of Lebanon for decades and has only left the country in 2000, following stiff Lebanese resistance under Hezbollah’s leadership.
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It attempted to re-occupy Lebanon in 2006 but failed in what Lebanon considers a major victory against Israel.
Israel, however, continues to occupy parts of Lebanon, namely the Sheeba Farms region.
Hezbollah has vowed to recover every inch of Lebanon that has been occupied by Israel contrary to international law.
(The Palestine Chronicle)
